Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary:
- Bank seen raising rates by a further 50bps
- Fresh rate path projections should reflect front-loading bias
- Focus turns to any signal for magnitude of November, December hikes
Full preview including summary of sell-side views here:
July’s surprisingly high inflation release prompted a sharp revision of expectations across the sell-side and likely caught the Norges Bank off guard. The subsequent 50bps rate rise was larger than expected and prompted the Bank to act against their own guidance. As such, rates after this week’s decision will likely be in excess of the year-end projections provided in June and the bank will inevitably have to sharply adjust their presentation materials, painting a picture of a slower economy, with faster-rising prices.
The magnitude of the miss in inflation forecasting (as has been the case across almost all developed market central banks) will be again pressing the bank for faster action. This sets up another 50bps rate rise, which governor Wolden Bache may argue remains within their guidance: “If prices rise more than we expect, it may be appropriate to raise the policy rate more than currently projected.”
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.