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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - (Still) the Last Hawk Out the Door
- The Norges Bank held policy rates at 4.50%, as unanimously expected. The updated policy path contained an unambiguous “higher for longer” signal, peaking at 4.51% in Q3 2024 and Q4 2024.
- The policy statement continued to stress that rates will likely be kept at peak levels “for some time ahead”, with the Committeee concerned “with the possibility that if the policy rate is lowered prematurely, inflation could remain above target for too long”. As such, Norges Bank have guided that rates will be kept at current levels until “the end of the year, before gradually being reduced”.
- While an upward revision to the rate path was firmly expected, we think the extent of those revisions caught markets off guard. As such, NOK strengthened on release and through the day.
- Following the decision, a number of analysts have pushed back calls for a September cut. Consensus now appears split between a first rate cut in December ‘24 (which would be dovish relative to the Norges Bank’s rate path) and March ‘25 (more consistent with the rate path).
Our full review, including a summary of sell-side views, is here:
MNI Norges Bank Review - 2024-06.pdf
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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