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MNI: NY Fed: 1Y Inflation Expectations Lowest Since April 2021


U.S. consumers' expectations for year-ahead price growth fell to their lowest level since April 2021, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found in its latest survey, and longer-term expectations stayed steady.

The Fed bank's November Survey of Consumer Expectations reported the median respondent sees inflation one year from now at 3.4%, down 0.2pp from the prior month and 3.4pps from the peak. Median inflation expectations at the three- and five-year ahead horizons remained unchanged at 3.0% and 2.7%. The University of Michigan's new year-ahead reading released Friday is the lowest since March 2021 at 3.1%.

The New York Fed survey also pointed to mixed expectations about the labor marker. Respondents were less pessimistic about the year-ahead rate of unemployment, but the median year-ahead expected earnings growth declined slightly and the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job increased.

Source: New York Fed

MNI Washington Bureau | +1 202-371-2121 |
MNI Washington Bureau | +1 202-371-2121 |

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