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MNI Peru Central Bank Preview – April 2024: Pause May Be Extended

Most analysts expect the BCRP to extend the pause in its easing cycle, keeping the policy rate at 6.25%.

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Executive Summary

  • Most analysts expect the BCRP to extend the pause in its easing cycle, keeping the policy rate at 6.25% for a second successive meeting after the unexpected hold in March.
  • However, the decision is expected to be a close call and a minority of analysts still look for a 25bp cut.
  • Higher-than-expected March inflation, coupled with concern over declining interest rate differentials, given the shift in the Fed outlook are the main reasons for the BCRP to stand pat.
  • Nonetheless, most analysts expect the BCRP to resume easing soon, even if it does hold this month, especially once the Fed starts to cut.


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MNI Peru Central Bank Preview - April 2024.pdf

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Executive Summary

  • Most analysts expect the BCRP to extend the pause in its easing cycle, keeping the policy rate at 6.25% for a second successive meeting after the unexpected hold in March.
  • However, the decision is expected to be a close call and a minority of analysts still look for a 25bp cut.
  • Higher-than-expected March inflation, coupled with concern over declining interest rate differentials, given the shift in the Fed outlook are the main reasons for the BCRP to stand pat.
  • Nonetheless, most analysts expect the BCRP to resume easing soon, even if it does hold this month, especially once the Fed starts to cut.


Click to view the full preview:

MNI Peru Central Bank Preview - April 2024.pdf