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MNI PODCAST: FedSpeak - Ex-Fed's Perli Sees US Recession Risk

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
  • Ex-board economist Roberto Perli says Fed policy is already restrictive as longer-term rates surpass neutral
  • Perli sees elevated recession risks under these conditions; 70% or more based on models and past historical relationships, around 50% based on his own current estimation.
  • Fed to hike 50 bps in May and June "but beyond that it’s really going to depend on what inflation is doing, especially core inflation," he said
MNI Washington Bureau | +1 202 371 2121 | pedro.dacosta@marketnews.com
MNI Washington Bureau | +1 202 371 2121 | pedro.dacosta@marketnews.com

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