Free Trial

MNI POLICY: Carney Says UK Economy Shows Signs of Improvement

-BOE Carney Says Banks Stress Tested Against Economic Shock Way Greater Than
Corona Virus
By David Robinson
     LONDON (MNI) - Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said the UK economy had
shown signs of improvement since the November election, but that the Bank could
still provide more stimulus if it began to flag.
     The following are points from Carney's testimony to the House of Lords
Economic Affairs Committee:
     -The MPC left Bank Rate on hold at its January meeting, with two members
backing a 25-basis-point cut, and Carney said that the post general election
data had shown signs of improvement.
     But, he said "there is some slack in the economy ... we do think we should
be providing some stimulus to bring economy back to its trend rate of growth."
     The latest data were "consistent with a bounce coming" but he held the door
open to a future rate cut, saying that if the bounce did not materialise "we
would provide some (further) stimulus."
     -Carney noted that the March 11 Budget was expected to provide fiscal
support and that the MPC "would have to take into account the stimulus provided
     He was questioned about the Bank's assumption that potential growth had
shrunk to just 1.1%. He said that this reflected a continuation of demographic
effects, with labour supply have hit its upper limit, and of Brexit uncertainty.
     He said the effects of Brexit uncertainty, at least, should diminish.
     -Asked about the impact of the coronavirus, Carney noted that the gloomiest
current scenarios had Chinese growth slowing by a couple of percentage points,
down to around 4% annualised.
     He noted that the BOE stress tests for banks had incorporated a recession
in China, which was many orders of magnitude greater than likely coronavirus
effects, and it did not appear to pose a financial stability risk.
     -While it is desirable to review monetary policy frameworks on a periodic
basis, Carney said "the bar for change is very high" for any change to the
monetary policy framework - under which the Bank targets a single 2.0% CPI
inflation target. The current system has served the UK well, with the monetary
and macro and financial stability arms all communicating with each other, he
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2223; email:
[TOPICS: M$B$$$,M$E$$$,M$$BE$]

To read the full story



MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.