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Free AccessMNI POLICY: Ex-USTR Officials See Momentum In China Trade
-- Optimism Remains Despite Slide In Expectations For Summit Date
By Evan Ryser
NEW YORK (MNI) - With the United States and China agreeing to roll back
tariffs on each others' goods contingent on a phase one deal, former U.S. Trade
Representatives see strong momentum going forward with expectations for a phase
one deal and beyond.
"I think the news suggests that they have everything in place for a phase
one deal with a phased stage-out of tariffs in maybe a one, two, or three stage
process, depending on the commitments made," Welles Orr, a former assistant U.S.
Trade Representative, told MNI.
"I am optimistic that this thing is really coming together," Orr said.
"The tariffs I think will come off," Orr said, referencing comments from
Chinese officials, whilst he suggested a phase one deal may include a provision
to lock in further talks going forward.
The Chinese commerce ministry said Thursday the two countries had agreed to
cancel the tariffs in phases contingent on reaching a deal, while noting no
timetable was yet agreed. A U.S. official confirmed the planned rollback as part
of a phase one deal that President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping are
aiming to sign.
Amy Celico, a former senior director for China affairs at the Office of the
U.S. Trade Representative, said "I believe that the U.S. government wants phase
one to be followed absolutely by phase two. Ambassador Lighthizer has been
absolutely consistent throughout the process. He believes a comprehensive deal
is the only way to have a deal."
"I don't think the U.S. government is being disingenuous in saying this is
the start of a process," Celico said after an event at the Council on Foreign
Relations.
--SIGNING
The United States and China continue to hunt for a replacement venue to
complete negotiations and sign a deal after Chile cancelled the mid-November
APEC summit. Optimism remains over the talks despite expectations that a summit
could slide into December and possibly January.
"I am not that worried about that," Celico said when asked if choosing a
venue would cause complications. "It's hard. Scheduling is very difficult and so
we are seeing that November is really not likely to happen."
Celico said she continues to see positive signs. "I think both sides want
something to happen and so they are being quite flexible to the challenges. Both
sides seem equally committed to finding a venue."
"It could bleed into January," Celico said.
Scheduled December 15 tariffs on about $156 billion worth of Chinese
imports, including cell phones, toys, and laptop computers linger over the
discussions, with the Chinese pushing for their cancellation.
Orr, however, said he expected the two could be linked in which a phase one
deal could potentially retroactively lift December 15 tariffs if a summit were
to slid late into December or into early 2020.
"I think the administration must have a win in the trade front and this
would be meaningful, and it would continue to help the markets, especially as
the USMCA seems to be slipping possibly into 2020," Orr said.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: evan.ryser@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MI$$$$,MGU$$$]
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.