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Free AccessMNI POLICY: Japan Jan CPI Drop Slows But No Impact On BOJ View
The slower pace of the decline in Japan's December core consumer price index was no surprise to Bank of Japan officials who expected downward pressure on prices after the temporary suspension of the government's Go To Travel campaign, MNI understands.
Bank officials maintain the view that the inflation rate is expected to be in negative territory in the present context, and expect downward pressure on prices to increase even if the government resumes the campaign after the state of emergency is lifted.
The nationwide core CPI fell 0.6% y/y in January for the sixth straight month after -1.0% in December. The smaller drop was expected as the Tokyo January CPI, a leading indicator of nationwide CPI, slowed to -0.4% in January from -0.9% in December.
CORE-CORE CPI RISES
January core-core CPI, excluding fresh food and energy items - the BOJ's preferred gauge of the underlying trend – rose 0.1% y/y in January after falling 0.4% in December.
Overall accommodation prices fell 2.1% y/y in January, narrowing sharply from a 33.5% fall in December, due to the interruption of the travel campaign.
SOLID SERVICES, EATING OUT
Service prices were unchanged from a year earlier in January after falling 1.0% in December. Prices for eating out, another key BOJ focus, rose 0.3% y/y in January, unchanged from +0.3% in December.
Prices for processed foods, accounting for 15% of the total CPI on which BOJ officials focus, remained weak, down 0.2% in January and unchanged from a 0.2% fall in December.
MOBILE PHONES LOWER
Major firms have announced new plans at a lower prices beginning in April, and BOJ officials judged the CPI may be pushed lower for the time being.
However, the BOJ said in the January Outlook Report that: "Such new plans are not factored into the outlook for prices as their impact could change depending on how they will be reflected in the CPI."
Bank officials are focused on April CPI to gauge the impact of the lower phone charges, MNI understands.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.