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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary
- Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's decision to call a snap general election looks to have backfired, with opinion polling showing his Liberal Party neck-and-neck with the opposition Conservatives, meaning neither party is likely to win an outright majority.
- There is not expected to be any significant market impact from the election result, with both major parties committed to continued deficit spending in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, while there is unlikely to be any threat to Canada's trend of fiscal rectitude, its stable banking system, or its robust regulatory environment from either a Liberal or Conservative administration.
- The main risk to stability comes in the form of a deadlocked election, where no party secures a majority and neither Prime Minister Trudeau nor Conservative leader Erin O'Toole are able to form a stable minority administration. In this scenario another snap election could be required to break the stalemate, lengthening the period in which the Canadian government is unable to enact policy decisions and increasing uncertainty.
Full PDF attached below:
MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS - Canada Election Preview.pdf
Chart 1. Canadian House of Commons Before Dissolution, Seats
Source: House of Commons, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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