Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary
- French President Emmanuel Macron is seeking to retain office in the presidential election taking place in a two-round system on 10 and 24 April. The incumbent sits as the favourite to win a second term in an election campaign that has seen most moderate candidates fall by the wayside, with figures from the far-right and far-left dominating the debate. The election was initially viewed as something of a fait accompli with little market interest. However, a late slump in support for Macron has seen a sharp uptick in market focus in the race.
- The election comes at a time of great domestic and international crisis. French voters are being hit hard by rising food, energy, and fuel price inflation at home, while on the international stage the government in Paris playing a major role in the Western alliance facing down Russia’s Vladimir Putin in Ukraine.
- In this preview we offer a brief guide to the major candidates running for the presidency, the French electoral system, a dive into opinion polling trends and betting market odds for the vote, and scenario analysis of the potential outcomes of the election with assigned probabilities. We also include commentary on the election from several sell-side outfits.
Full article PDF attached:
MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – France Election Preview.pdf
Chart 1. First-Round Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: Ifop-Fiducial, Ipsos-Sopra Steria, OpinionWay-Kea, Cluster17, Elabe, BVA, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok