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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Global COVID-19 Tracker – Aug 4

by Tom Lake

Today's Major COVID-19 Headlines And Latest Data

  • India recorded the highest number of COVID-19 fatalities globally on August 3 for the first time, while the country's number of recorded cases rose by over 50,000. The large number of cases means India's mortality rate remains low at around 2.1/100 cases, compared to 3.3 in the US, 5.3 in China, and 15.1 in the UK. Despite the rise in case numbers, gyms and yoga centres are the latest sectors in line to reopen as the government seeks to encourage an economic recovery.
  • UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has said the closure of schools worldwide due to COVID-19 is a "general catastrophe", and that getting children back in education must be the world's "top priority" once the pandemic is over. Many children in Germany are returning to school today, but over 160 countries have closed schools in recent months, something Guterres says will "undermine decades of progress, and exacerbate entrenched inequalities."
  • A minimum of 41 individuals have tested positive for COVID-19 on the Norwegian cruise liner the MS Roald Amundsen, sparking the Norwegian government to stop all cruise ships with 100+ passengers disembarking within 14 days of docking. Cruise operators around the world have been hit hard by the pandemic, with only nascent signs of a recovery emerging. The Diamond Princess gained worldwide attention in February as a location of one of the first outbreaks outside China.
  • Global increase in cases (daily) – Yesterday: 1.1%. Seven-day average: 1.5%
  • Global increase in fatalities (daily) – Yesterday: 0.6%. Seven-day average: 0.8%

MNI INTERVIEW: Fed Real-Time Labor Index Sees July Jobs +1.5M - The U.S. economy likely recouped just 1.5 million jobs in July as hiring slowed sharply amid a surge in Covid-19 cases, according to a St. Louis Fed real time labor market index that accurately predicted the surprise rebound in employment in May and June, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis economist Max Dvorkin told MNI. On MNI Policy Main Wire and email now - for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com

Chart 1. COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)

Source: JHU, MNI. As of 0800BST August 4. N.b. Each dot represents a single day's figures, data for past month

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