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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Global COVID-19 Tracker - Oct 19

COVID-19 Trends and Developments

  • The government of Wales has announced that the country will enter into a two-week 'fire break' lockdown from Friday in order to curtail the spread of cases. The restrictions will see all non-essential shops and all hospitality closed and individuals forced to stay at home. The Welsh lockdown highlights the difficulty faced by the government in Westminster in attempting to coordinate lockdown measures, given that the government of Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland have the ability to impose restrictions, but it is the UK Treasury that is expected or required to pay for the economic support measures required due to the lockdowns.
  • Ireland's government is meeting today to discuss the imposition of greater COVID-19 restrictions. Last week Irelands National Public Health Emergency Team recommended the entire country be placed under the most severe level five rules, the same as the March lockdown. Ireland has 49,962 recorded cases so far causing 1,852 fatalities. The rate of increase in cases has accelerate notably, with Ireland recording an average increase of over 1,000 per day over the past week, the first time the seven-day average has gone into four figures.
  • The 3,345 COVID-19 related fatalities recorded on October 18 is the lowest 24-hour total worldwide since June 28, when 3,138 fatalities were added to the total. It should be noted that fatality and case numbers are historically at their lowest on a Monday, with many nations not reporting figures over the weekend, while Brazil has also not published its data for October 18.
Chart 1. COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)

Source: JHU, MNI. As of 0600BST October 19. N.b. Each dot represents a single day's figures, data for past three months

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