Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary
Italy holds a snap general election on Sunday 25 September, with the vote holding the potential to deliver the most right-wing government to Rome in a generation. The previous ‘grand coalition’ government of Prime Minister Mario Draghi collapsed in July after the largest party withdrew its support. With Italy sitting as the third largest eurozone economy, the identity of its next government will have significant ramifications for EU policy making in areas as varied as energy policy, fiscal policy, and the bloc’s support for Ukraine.
- The centre-right coalition of parties looks set to secure a majority in both chambers of the Italian parliament. The right-wing nationalist Brothers of Italy likely to lead this bloc, with party head Giorgia Meloni on course to become prime minister. The government would be the most avowedly right-wing Italian administration in decades.
- Meloni in particular has sought to calm markets and European observers with more conciliatory rhetoric towards areas such as EU fiscal rules and continued support for Ukraine. There remain concerns that the presence of Matteo Salvini’s League and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia in government could lead to weaker Italian support for sanctions on Russia and a more combative stance with Brussels.
- Parties of the centre-left, notably the historically dominant Democratic Party, look set for a period on the political sidelines. Meanwhile the 5-Star Movement – which was the largest single party in the last election – risks falling to the status of a minor party.
In this preview we offer a briefing on the amended Italian electoral system, key timings for the vote, a guide on the main parties contesting the election, an opinion polling chartpack, post-election scenario analysis (with assigned probabilities), sell-side research views, and our latest MNI Policy content on the Italian election.
Chart 1. Italian Election Opinion Polling by Coalition, % and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: Piepoli, BiDiMedia, Quorum-YouTrend, SWG, Lab2101, Cluster17, IZI, Termometro Politico, Tecne, Euromedia, Noto, Index Research, GDC, EMG, Demos & Pi, Demopolis, Ipsos, CISE, Ixe, MNI. N.b. Prior to Aug 2022, Action and Italia Viva data compiled by combining two separate parties’ support.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.