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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-Philippines Election Preview

The Philippines holds its general election on Monday 9 May to decide on the identity of country’s next president, vice-president, and the make-up of its Congress. The election of incumbent populist President Rodrigo Duterte’s successor will have important ramifications for the Philippine political and economic landscape, as well as an impact on the increasingly tense geopolitical situation in the Indo-Pacific region.

Executive Summary

  • Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr. is the clear favourite to win the presidency, with his running mate – incumbent President Rodrigo Duterte’s daughter – Sara Duterte likely to win the vice-presidency.
  • A Marcos win would likely see the somewhat frosty relations between Manila and Washington, D.C., remain in place, with Marcos viewed as the more ‘pro-China’ of the main candidates.
  • A shock win for liberal candidate and current VP, Leni Robredo, would likely see a notable shift in government policy, with criticism of Beijing ratcheted up and closer links with the US and ASEAN neighbours sought.

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Executive Summary

  • Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr. is the clear favourite to win the presidency, with his running mate – incumbent President Rodrigo Duterte’s daughter – Sara Duterte likely to win the vice-presidency.
  • A Marcos win would likely see the somewhat frosty relations between Manila and Washington, D.C., remain in place, with Marcos viewed as the more ‘pro-China’ of the main candidates.
  • A shock win for liberal candidate and current VP, Leni Robredo, would likely see a notable shift in government policy, with criticism of Beijing ratcheted up and closer links with the US and ASEAN neighbours sought.

ARTICLE RE-SENT WITH PDF ATTACHED

Keep reading...Show less