Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary
- Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr. is the clear favourite to win the presidency, with his running mate – incumbent President Rodrigo Duterte’s daughter – Sara Duterte likely to win the vice-presidency.
- A Marcos win would likely see the somewhat frosty relations between Manila and Washington, D.C., remain in place, with Marcos viewed as the more ‘pro-China’ of the main candidates.
- A shock win for liberal candidate and current VP, Leni Robredo, would likely see a notable shift in government policy, with criticism of Beijing ratcheted up and closer links with the US and ASEAN neighbours sought.
ARTICLE RE-SENT WITH PDF ATTACHED
The Philippines holds its general election on Monday 9 May to decide on the identity of country’s next president, vice-president, and the make-up of its Congress. The election of incumbent populist President Rodrigo Duterte’s successor will have important ramifications for the Philippine political and economic landscape, as well as an impact on the increasingly tense geopolitical situation in the Indo-Pacific region. In this preview we provide a succinct briefing of how the election works and who the main candidates and parties are, charts and comment on the latest opinion polling going into the election, and scenario analysis assigning probabilities to the most likely potential outcomes of the vote and examining the potential impact of different presidencies.
Link to full article PDF attached below:
MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-Philippines Election Preview.pdf
Chart 1. Presidential Opinion Polling, % and Trendline
Source: OCTA, Pulse Asia, Laylo, MBC-DZR, I&AC, Publicus Asia, RMN-APC ORE, RP-MDF, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.