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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary:
- The German federal election that took place on 26 September delivered largely according to expectations and pre-election polling, with the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) overtaking the centre-right Christian Democratic Union-Christian Social Union (CDU-CSU) to become the largest party in the Bundestag.
- Prior to the election, the main potential shock scenario for markets was that there would be the possibility of a left-wing 'R2G' coalition formed by the SPD, the environmentalist Alliance '90/The Greens (Greens) and the far-left Die Linke (The Left). However, following a poor election result for Die Linke, these parties won a combined 363 of the 735 seats in the Bundestag, five short of a majority. With this outcome removed from the stable of potential coalitions the policy impact of the next government – no matter the composition – is unlikely to result in any major shifts that could shock markets.
- With the Red-Red-Green coalition off the table, the following coalition options remain available (listed in order of likelihood to reach agreement)....
Full article PDF attached below:
MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-SPD In Pole Position For Coalition Talks.pdf
Chart 1. German Bundestag, After 2017 Election and 2021 Election, Seats
Source: Bundeswahlleiter, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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