MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-Taliban Gains Create Geopol Risks

by Tom Lake

The United States and its allies in the Afghanistan War are facing tough questions over their governments' decisions to withdraw troops from the country. In the wake of these withdrawals, significant territorial gains have been made by the Taliban, risking a prolonged civil war or even a full Taliban takeover of Afghanistan.

• Since the US, UK and other allied nations began full troop withdrawals in 2021 (the final deadline for the US being 11 September), the Taliban have launched a nationwide offensive. As of the morning of 12 August they have captured control of 10 regional capital cities.

Source: AFP. longwarjournal.org, Foundation for Defense of Democracies, MNI

• With the Taliban taking the city of Ghazni on 12 August, this is seen as a major threat to the Afghan gov't in Kabul, with the now-Taliban controlled city sitting on the main Kandahar-Kabul motorway. The Washington Post reports unnamed US officials stating that Kabul could fall within 90 days.
• Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, US President Joe Biden stated that "They've [the Afghan government] got to fight for themselves."
• A full Taliban takeover of Afghanistan would have major geopolitical implications beyond its own borders.
• US, UK: The outcome would do notable reputational damage to both nations after 20 years of constant troop presence costing billions of dollars and thousands of American and hundreds of British soldiers' lives. A Taliban-controlled Afghanistan could also see the country once again become a base of operations for terrorist groups, while the opium and heroin trade could ramp up significantly.
• China: While not having any direct military presence in Afghanistan, the rise of the Taliban will come as a concern to Beijing. China had hoped to incorporate parts of Afghanistan into its Belt and Road (B&R) infra plans, something that would be scuppered by Taliban control. Instability in Afghanistan also risks instability in neighbouring Pakistan, where China already has made major infrastructure investments as part of B&R. Finally, Beijing remains wary that the Taliban could provide support or encouragement to the ethnic Uighur Muslim movement in Xinjiang province.
• Iran: The Iranian-Afghan border is 572- miles long, and the new administration in Tehran will be wary of both major refugee flows in the event of civil war or Taliban control. Moreover, the Taliban – as an extremist Sunni militia – is still viewed as an existential threat to Iran's security in the majority Shia nation.
• Russia: Still scarred by the Soviet-Afghan War of 1979-1989, a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan will be viewed in Moscow as a potential threat to stability in Russia's south. Civil war and violence in Afghanistan risks violence in its Central Asian neighbours to the north in Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Russia still retains both nations within its broad sphere of influence, and any instability there would have knock-on effects in Russia. In a similar concern to Western nations, a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan acting as a base of operations for Islamist terrorists could provide a boon to extremists in the Russian republics of Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia and Kabardino-Balkaria.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-Major Geopolitical Risks Emerging From Taliban Gains.pdf