MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS - US Daily Brief 01-06-23

Executive Summary:

• The US House of Representatives yesterday passed the bill negotiated by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and President Biden to suspend the US$31.4tn debt ceiling until 2025.
• The vote was a significant bipartisan success to which both sides can credibly claim victory. McCarthy has likely done enough to stave off a revolt from his conservative wing and Biden has burnished his credentials as a pragmatic dealmaker ahead of his 2024 re-election campaign.
• The bill will now be passed to the Senate where it faces a number of amendment proposals but is likely to pass without issue before the Treasury Department's June 5 x-date.
• Former Vice President Mike Pence is expected to launch his 2024 bid for the White House next Wednesday.
• Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo is hopeful that the US and China can resolve some of their trade differences.
• The US will sign the first deal of a new trade framework with Taiwan today.
• The White House says the sale of F-16s to Turkey will not be part of a quid-pro-quo for Ankara's approval of Sweden’s NATO bid.
• Poll of the Day: President Biden’s approval rating is tracking at its lowest level since August 2022.

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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS - US Daily Brief 01-06-23 .pdf