MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 09-03-22

Executive Summary:

• As the war in Ukraine continues to intensify US intelligence officials have speculated about the motivations and ambitions of Russian President Vladimir Putin and expressed concern that a lack of resistance in the Kremlin may lead Putin to further escalate the war.
• CIA Director William Burns said Putin ‘has been stewing in a combustible combination of grievance and ambition for many years.’ Burns continued: ‘I think Putin is angry and frustrated right now. He’s likely to double down and try to grind down the Ukrainian military with no regard for civilian casualties.’
• Yesterday the US and Poland publicly botched a deal to transfer Polish MIG-29s to Ukraine. Coincidentally, Vice President Kamala Harris is in Poland today for a planned bilateral meeting with Polish President Andrzej Duda and Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. Harris will be tasked with trying to diffuse the first serious intra-NATO diplomatic dispute of the war so far.
• A bipartisan group of four senators have introduced a bill to sanction the purchase of Russian gold. The ‘Stop Russian Government and Oligarchs from Limiting Democracy Act’ would impose sanctions upon anyone transacting or transporting Russian gold from Russia’s central bank holdings.
• Energy policy expert James Coleman has outlined some of potential supply squeezes which could be caused by the war beyond the current energy crisis. These may include major shortages of cobalt, chrome, copper, gold, graphite, lead, manganese, nickel, platinum, tungsten, vanadium, and zinc.
• Congressional leaders have released the 2,700-page text of a bipartisan USD$1.5 trillion government funding deal. The House will take up the bill this morning but a four-day continuing resolution extending funding until March 15 will also be voted on in case the Senate needs more time to pass the bill. The GOP has managed to negotiate a strong position on the omnibus: Defence spending has increased far more than the White House wanted, they won on riders, including the Hyde Amendment and there are no ‘poison pills’.

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