MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS - US Daily Brief 10-11-22

Executive Summary:

• The dust is settling on a midterm election which delivered a rejection of former President Donald Trump’s inexperienced candidates and validated a Democrat strategy to focus campaigns on abortion and “threats to democracy.”
• The Senate comes down to Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia: Whomever wins two of these three races will control the upper chamber.
• A “red wave” in the House failed to materialise, but a Republican landslide in Florida looks set to promote Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) to de facto leader of the Republican party and dispel any lingering doubts over Florida’s status as a swing state.
• Democrat strategists will be breathing a sigh of relief after their decision to boost far-right Republicans appears to have paid off.
• House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy's (R-CA) path to the House Speaker’s gavel now appears less assured.
• Poll of the Day: "Dobbs" may be the primary explanation for Democrats’ overperformance.

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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS - US Daily Brief 10-11-22 .pdf