MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS - US Daily Brief 11-04-23

Executive Summary:

• The Biden Administration is grappling with the most significant leak of intelligence since the Snowden papers in 2013.
• President Biden is edging closer to a formal 2024 campaign launch: “I plan on running, but we’re not prepared to announce it yet.”
• Biden will depart today on a tour of the island of Ireland.
• House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) may be on “rocky ground” after releasing a report which appeared to deflect blame for the lack of a Republican FY24 budget onto members of his leadership team.
• The People’s Republic of China yesterday concluded three days of military exercises around Taiwan in response to the McCarthy-Tsai meeting in California last week.
• Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki will begin a three-day US trip today as Poland claims an increasingly influential military position within the EU.
• The US and the Philippines will hold 2+2 talks in Washington today as the two countries launch an 18-day joint military exercise.
• The Biden administration has abandoned plans to conduct a formal review into the US-Saudi bilateral relationship.
• Poll of the Day: 82% of voters approve of Congress strengthening rules on banks to prevent a repeat of Silicon Valley Bank collapse.

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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS - US Daily Brief 11-04-23 .pdf