MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 15-02-22

Executive Summary:

• Tensions on the Ukrainian border have cooled slightly this morning. Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and Russian President Vladimir Putin have indicated that Russia might be heading for an offramp.
• Yesterday in Washington there were simultaneous pressers from the White House, the State Department, and the Pentagon. The US position has remained consistent for the past few weeks. The US does not believe that the Kremlin has made a final decision on an invasion of Ukraine but the military movements within the Russian Federation are significantly concerning to prompt a heightened level of military readiness and support to NATO.
• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced a sovereign loan of USD$1 billion to Ukraine to support its domestic reform agenda and help insulate the country from Russian coercion. This will irritate Moscow but there are suggestions that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky may be willing to concede NATO aspirations.
• 08:45 ET 13:45 GMT: The Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs will meet today to conduct a hearing on Biden’s Federal Reserve nominees. A committee vote is expected to take place at 14:15 ET 19:15 GMT.
• The continuing resolution to keep the government funded is currently stalled in the Senate while Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) awaits written confirmation that the White House is not planning to distribute free crack pipes to drug users.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 15-02-22 .pdf