MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 15-03-22

Executive Summary:

• The Russian advance on Kyiv appears to have stalled. US intelligence officials believe that Russia has now committed all its combat forces to the country but don’t have sufficient personnel to move on the Ukrainian capital. Yesterday, the fourth round of ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine, this time held virtually, failed to deliver a ceasefire but delegates were hopeful of more positive developments. The talks resume today.
• There has been widespread speculation and mixed messaging over reported military and economic cooperation between China and Russia. Various reports have claimed that Moscow requested drones, surveillance equipment, and sanctions relief from China. Yesterday US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Chinese diplomat Yang Jiechi held a seven-hour meeting in Rome on Ukraine. Sullivan was tasked by the Biden administration with deterring China from a move to support the Russian war effort. An official readout of the meeting provided few details of the content of talks.
• Sarah Bloom Raskin’s nomination to the post of Federal Reserve vice chair of supervision has been effectively ended. Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) issued a statement opposing Bloom Raskin’s nomination citing a number of the issues which lead GOP Banking Committee chief Pat Toomey (R-PA) to boycott a vote on her nomination.
• 49 of the 50 Republican senators have stated that they oppose a move to strike a nuclear deal with Iran. They wrote: ‘Republicans will do everything in our power to reverse it. Unless Iran ceases its support for terrorism, we will oppose removing and seek to reimpose any terrorism-related sanctions. And we will force the Senate to vote on any Administration effort to do so.’

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 15-03-22 .pdf