MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 20-01-22

Executive Summary:

• President Joe Biden spoke for two hours at a White House presser yesterday. One of the key takeaways was that Build Back Better remains on the agenda. Biden said he is confident that large chunks of the Build Back Better bill can be salvaged and signed into law. But it will need to be broken down. ‘I think we can break the package up, get as much as we can now and come back and fight for the rest later’.
• The next iteration of Build Back Better will prompt more bitter infighting amongst Democrats on the Hill. The initial package contained an array of disparate provisions supported by Democrats with different legislative goals. The more the original bill is cut down, the less likely it is to gain the support of Democrats who have seen their preferred piece of legislation removed.
• Expect the highly popular, but costly, child tax credits scheme to be scrapped.
• Joe Biden's remarks at his presser that only a full invasion of Ukraine would prompt a NATO response have been criticised for undermining diplomatic talks to resolve the crisis. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is in Germany today trying to formulate a joint NATO response and tomorrow he will meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Geneva.

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