MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 23-02-22

Executive Summary:

• The US has responded to Russia’s move to recognise the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics by announcing a ‘first tranche’ of sanctions on Russian banks, individuals, and Russian sovereign debt. Biden is expected to announce more sanctions once Congress returns next week. He also warned that sanctions against Russia may lead to headship at home. He told Americans to expect higher energy prices and to be prepared for an increased risk of cyber-attacks on US businesses.
• Currently diplomatic tracks are stalled and the crisis is in a period of inactivity while the situation in Eastern Ukraine takes shape. Tomorrow’s meeting between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has been cancelled. Blinken said: ‘Now that we see the invasion is beginning and Russia has made clear its wholesale rejection of diplomacy, it does not make sense to go forward with that meeting at this time’. A Biden summit with Russian president Vladimir Putin which was contingent of the Blinken-Lavrov meeting has also been cancelled.
• The Republican response to White House sanctions has been consistent with the GOP line of previous weeks: ‘Too little, too late.’
• Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) said: ‘These sanctions are not enough. The United States needs to implement maximum sanctions, just as we have on Iran. Now is the time to implement all measures to destroy the Russian economy. We don’t have time for Biden’s weakness.’
• President Biden is expected to announce his SCOTUS nominee by the end of the week. Biden has interviewed the three leading contenders for the nomination, assumed to be Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson, Judge J. Michelle Childs, and California Supreme Court Justice Leondra Kruger.
• The Pentagon has approved the deployment of 700 unarmed National Guard troops to Washington to pre-empt disruption caused by trucker convoys next week. There is a concern that truckers may attempt to shut down the Baltimore-Washington Beltway.
• Chart of the day explores the correlation between Putin's domestic approval rating and Russia's aggressive foreign policy abroad.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 23-02-22 .pdf