MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 23-03-22

Executive Summary:

• President Biden has departed Washington for three high-level summits in Brussels. On Thursday, he will attend an extraordinary NATO summit, then meet with leaders of the G7, finally, he will address EU leaders at the European Council before travelling to Poland on Friday for a meeting with Polish president Andrzej Duda.
• Biden will use the European trip to coordinate another raft of Russia sanctions. The most likely sanctions are additional measures against members of Russia's elite and State Duma.
• Biden’s trip to Poland is especially timely as Poland, the most exposed NATO and EU member state to the humanitarian crisis, is beginning to show a fraying in the Western alliance. Fears are growing within NATO that Poland may be vulnerable to escalating the conflict. The White House and NATO leadership have recently nixed several Polish proposals to expand material support to Ukraine including the transfer of MiG-29 fighter planes and a NATO peacekeeping force.
• Biden said yesterday that Russian President Vladimir Putin ‘was counting on being able to split NATO. …I can assure you: NATO has never been stronger or more united.’
• The White House is still struggling to procure additional Covid-19 relief funding as the prospect of another Covid wave is increasing. The White House requested USD$22.5 billion in the FY22 omnibus but was blocked by Democrat governors concerned with offsets. The GOP is continuing to refuse support for Covid funding under emergency measures.
• Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said: ‘This is really crucial and anyone who tries to block this – God forbid we have a second variant and we don’t have enough of the therapeutics, enough of the testing, enough of the vaccines, is going to regret it.'
• Poll of the Day: US voters are increasingly likely to support a federal gas tax holiday as a solution to rising energy prices.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 23-03-22 .pdf