MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 27-01-22

Executive Summary:

• Yesterday President Joe Biden hosted private sector CEOs at the White House to promote Build Back Better 2.0. Biden was conspicuous in his push to have the child tax credit provision of Build Back Better recognised by business leaders. He steered the discussion away from climate and prompted CEOs to explain how the child tax credits would help ease inflation.
• However, the future of Build Back Better 2.0 may already be in doubt as the Senate is now on high alert for a fast-tracked Supreme Court nomination.
• Justice Stephen Breyer announced his retirement yesterday and Biden restated his intention to nominate a black woman to the Supreme Court. There is no Senate mechanism by which Republicans can block a White House nomination so the task for Biden is to make sure his nomination has the approval of all 50 of his Senators.
• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated yesterday that monetary policy will be nimble. Powell did not rule out rate hikes at every meeting rather than at every other meeting. Powell said that the Fed will be guided by data and the Fed will ‘…need to be nimble so that we can respond to the full range of plausible outcomes.’
• The West has responded to Russian demands to address concerns of European security. The Western response was considered but declined to yield to Russian pressure for concessions on NATO expansion. The response has suggested alternate areas of cooperation which may allow a compromise and provide an offramp to the tensions.
• The United States is not yet at the point of ‘living with Covid’. Sufficient control of the disease (not elimination) is the goal. Fauci: ‘We believe we can get there with tests, masks, vaccines, antivirals.'

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 27-01-22 .pdf