MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 10-16 Jan

Executive Summary:

Monday 10 January:

• US-Russia: Talks take place in Geneva, Switzerland between senior representatives from the United States and Russia amid heightened tensions on the Russia-Ukraine border. Topics of discussion set to focus on a draft agreement sent to the US and NATO in December by Moscow seeking certain security guarantees and commitments not to expand NATO further eastwards. US has stated that it would not countenance any of these demands, and as such little progress is expected beyond commitments to further diplomatic talks.
• United States:No set date, but with self-imposed deadline of 17 January for passing voter rights legislation, Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has stated that this week he could seek to implement rule changes to reform the filibuster. Will require support from all Democrat senators, with moderate Joe Manchin (D-WV) a key hold-out at present.
• China-GCC: Foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain, as well as the Secretary-General of the Gulf Cooperation Council Nayef bin Falah-Al Hajraf travel to China for meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Talks intended to result in stronger energy ties between China and the GCC. Comes at a time when nations around the world seek to ensure stable and affordable energy supplies amidst surging natural gas costs. Chinese President Xi Jinping has also previously stated his intention for China to boost its trading relationship with Gulf states.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 10-16 Jan.pdf