MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 13-19 Dec

Executive Summary

Monday 13 December:

• United States: President Joe Biden could meet with Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) as soon as Monday as senior Democrats seek to pressure the conservative Democrat into supporting the Build Back Better social spending package. Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer has stated that he wants the bill on the Senate floor by Christmas Day. The ‘Byrd bath’ on the bill, where Democrats and Republicans argue cases to the Senate parliamentarian on the inclusion of various provisions, also set for this week. Senate also expected to pass the National Defense Authorization Act, while both chambers of Congress will vote for an increase to the debt ceiling to avoid a US default this week.
• European Union:European Parliament plenary session gets underway in Strasbourg. Remote voting procedures in place due to COVID-19. One of the major issues facing MEPs is the January election of a new Parliament president. Incumbent David Sassoli, from the centre-left S&D group, has not officially announced his candidacy, but has stated that he wants to ensure the position remains in the hands of social democrats rather than being taken by the centre-right EPP bloc. A 2019 deal between the S&D and EPP foresaw Sassoli relinquishing the position to an EPP candidate after his two-and-a-half year term was up.
• CEE: Visegrad Group (V4) meeting between heads of governments of Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia takes place in Budapest. French President Emmanuel Macron will also be in attendance as France prepares to take on the chair of the rotating presidency of the European Council on 1 January. Relations between V4 and EU remain strained as Poland and Hungary battle with Brussels on rule of law issues. This will be new Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s first V4 meeting since taking office.
• US-Asia: US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken begins a four-day trip to SE Asia encompassing visits to Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. The visit is Blinken’s first to the region and comes as the US attempts to shore up relationships with nations in the region as it swiftly becomes one of the world’s most important geostrategic battlegrounds. President Biden has previously said US engagement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), to which all three nations Blinken is visiting belong, will reach ‘unprecedented’ levels in response to Chinese ‘bullying’.
• Germany-France: Continuing the stream of senior German officials from the new government in Berlin travelling westwards, Finance Minister Christian Lindner meets his French counterpart Bruno Le Maire in Paris. The relationship between the two finance ministers will prove an important one in the months ahead, as France takes on the European Council presidency with big ideas for reforms to the Stability and Growth Pact.
• Canada:Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland and BoC Governor Tiff Macklem due to hold a presser at 1100ET to announce details surrounding the renewed agreement on the central bank’s inflation control target.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 13-19 Dec.pdf