MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 27 Sep-3 Oct

Executive Summary

• United States: Major week for President Biden and the Democratic-led Congress, with three major events set to coincide over the course of the week. At around 1730ET, the Senate is set to vote on whether to take up the House-passed bill that seeks to suspend the debt ceiling and avoid a government shutdown. GOP set to block the bill, requiring a continuing resolution split off from debt ceiling bill, but little indication of what this will look like. Monday is also the self-imposed deadline for the House Democratic leadership to pass the USD1trn bipartisan infrastructure bill. Unlikely to occur, with debate on the bill set to start Monday with a tentative vote set for Thursday.
• Germany:Following the 26 September federal election, in which the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) emerged with the most seats, parties will begin tentative steps towards talks on the formation of a majority governing coalition. The environmentalist Greens and pro-business liberal Free Democrats sit as the kingmakers and are set to hold meetings with one another before deciding on whether to lend support to the SPD or the centre-right Christian Democratic Union, which recorded its worst federal election result since WWII. Coalition negotiations likely to continue for some months, during which time Chancellor Angela Merkel remains in position in a caretaker capacity.
• European Union:European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visits the Romanian capital, Bucharest, to discuss the country's Recovery and Resilience Plan. Start of a multi-leg Balkans tour with visits to North Macedonia, Albania, Montenegro, Kosovo, Serbia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina planned between 28 and 30 September.
• United Nations:Final day of the UN General Assembly General Debate. Representatives of several US/Western adversaries due to deliver addresses, including Afghanistan, Belarus, Myanmar, and North Korea. Unclear who will deliver the address for Afghanistan, with the Taliban requesting to be recognised as the correct authority to deliver the address.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 27 Sep-3 Oct.pdf