MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 7-13 Feb

Executive Summary

All timings subject to change.

Monday 7 February:

• France-Russia: French President Emmanuel Macron travels to Moscow for talks with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. The two are set to discuss the situation in Ukraine, with Macron aiming to seek a resolution to the crisis that does not see Russia make military incursions into Ukrainian territory. Macron seeking to position himself as the prime interlocutor between Russia and the West and has been more open to Russian calls for ‘indivisible security’ than more hawkish US. The talks take place in the afternoon and are open-ended, with no set time for conclusion.
• Germany-US: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz travels to Washington, D.C., for talks with US President Joe Biden regarding the Ukraine crisis. The trip is a crucial one for Scholz, his first to the US as chancellor. Germany’s circumspect stance on the Ukraine crisis, with the government continuing to support the eventual operation of the Nord Stream II gas pipeline, has raised concerns in the US among Russia hawks that Berlin is no longer a ’reliable partner’ when it comes to dealing with Russia.
• United States:The House of Representatives is set to take up a continuing resolution (a stop-gap piece of legislation) this week intended to keep the federal government funded beyond 18 February, when the previous CR agreed in late-2021 expires. The House and Senate Appropriations Committees are seeking to reach a deal on a larger omnibus bill to see the government funded until the end of the current fiscal year on 30 September. However, neither Democrats nor Republicans are confident a deal can be reached by 18 February, thereby requiring a short-term CR.
• EU-US: EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Josep Borrell meets US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in Washington, D.C. The two will both participate in the US-EU Energy Council meeting, starting around 1200ET/1700GMT/1800CET. The meeting is intended to “…take forward EU-US cooperation on energy security and on the joint commitment to accelerate a just and clean energy transition to climate neutrality for citizens of the EU, the United States, and around the globe.” Comes as energy prices in US and EU remain at multi-year highs.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 7-13 Feb.pdf