MNI POLITICAL RISK - Johnson Preps Government Funding 'Plan B'

Executive Summary:

• Vice President Kamala Harris is back on the campaign trail today, speaking at two campaign events in North Carolina - a state that Democrats are aggressively targeting as a potential flip. Former President Donald Trump will deliver remarks on the economy in Arizona.
• It is clear that Harris won the first presidential debate with Trump. It is less clear if the debate will significantly move the needle towards Harris. We should get the first accurate indication of the debate impact by Sunday, at the earliest, when high-quality pollsters have completed their requisite fieldwork.
• White House National Economic Advisor Lael Brainard said that yesterday's CPI report, "shows that we are turning the page on inflation..."
• House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) pulled his government funding plan yesterday ahead of a House vote that was expected to fail amid opposition from hardline conservatives and defence hawks. Johnson intends to spend the weekend formulating a Plan B, but he has few appealing options.
• Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) intends to force Senate Republicans into a tricky vote, mirroring Trump's campaign pledge to mandate insurance coverage of IVF treatments.
• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will brief President Biden on Kyiv's request to relax restrictions on Western-supplied long-range missiles ahead of a meeting with UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer tomorrow.
• Poll of the Day: Trump is unlikely to benefit again from the polling bias that underestimated his support in the Rust Belt.

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