MNI POLITICAL RISK - Significant GOP Leadership Dissent On CR

Executive Summary:

• Congress worked rapidly yesterday to pass a Continuing Resolution to extend government funding through two new deadlines in March. With the CR in place, there is now just over 40 days to draft and legislate all 12 spending bills for Fiscal Year 2024. We have a summary of the next steps inside.
• MNI's political risk team noted ahead of the vote that the House vote tally could signpost the risk of a government shutdown at the new funding deadlines; and the risk of a conservative coup to oust House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) during the next round of FY2024 negotiations. Johnson managed to get a majority of his reps onside but the level of dissent amongst GOP leadership has raised major red flags.
• President Biden yesterday issued an optimistic assessment of two-track negotiations to overhaul US-Mexico border policy and secure USD$106 billion in supplemental funding. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is expected to bring a package to floor early next week.
• The House Ways and Means Committee will meet today to markup a USD$78 billion tax deal.
• President Biden has authorised an additional USD$4.9bln in student debt relief.
• Former President Donald Trump had warned the Supreme Court that upholding a Colorado decision to bar him from the state's primary ballot would, “unleash chaos.”
• NATO will launch its largest military exercise since the end of the Cold War next week.
• Poll of the Day: Democrats are slightly favoured to retake the seat of expelled former Republican George Santos in February.

Please find the full article attached below:

MNIPOLRISKUSDaily190124.pdf