MNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump On Track For Win In New Hampshire

Executive Summary:

• The second event of the Republican presidential nomination contest gets underway in New Hampshire today. Former President Donald Trump's commanding lead in the polls suggests that Nikki Haley's campaign may run out of stream before the contest reaches her home state of South Carolina. We have an extended preview of the primary inside.
• There is also an unsanctioned Democratic primary today. The primary violates DNC rules so there will be no delegates awarded and President Biden’s name will not appear on the ballot. However, the contest will provide useful data on the strength of the 'anti-Biden' protest vote.
• Early optimism that a border security package could be released this week has deflated following comments from Senate leaders indicating that negotiators remain at odds over presidential parole reform and appropriations for the final package.
• The US and UK militaries conducted another round of joint strikes on Houthi targets within Yemen yesterday following a call between President Biden and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
• President Donald Trump is extending his influence over the Republican Party in districts President Biden carried in 2020.
• The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will tomorrow mark up a bipartisan bill which would authorise the transfer of frozen Russian assets to Ukraine.
• President Biden sought yesterday to reframe the 2024 presidential election as a referendum on reproductive rights, seen as a potential vote winner for Democrats.
• Poll of the Day: Immigration has overtaken inflation as the most important issue facing the country.

Please find the full article attached below:

MNIPOLRISKUSDaily230124.pdf