MNI POLITICAL RISK - Vance Could Future Proof 'MAGA' Movement

Executive Summary:

• Former President Donald Trump was formally confirmed as the Republican presidential nominee and announced freshman US Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH) as his running mate at the Republican National Convention yesterday.
• Vance’s selection offers some potential electoral upsides for Trump, but risks missing an opportunity to firm up support amongst elements of the wider Republican base.
• The argument against Vance’s nomination is persuasive. Vance’s 2022 Senate victory, which came with the full-throated backing of Trump’s ‘MAGA’ movement, was weaker than expected. There is also a compelling case that Vance can do little to boost the ticket’s appeal amongst White working-class voters, as Trump already performs strongly with that demographic.
• For Democrats, Vance’s selection offers a strategic opening to escalate attacks on Trump’s alignment with right-wing policy groups like Project 2025. During the 2022 cycle, Democrats had success running against simliar Republican candidates with more “extreme” positions on social issues.
• We have a full round-up of Vance's electoral strengths and weaknesses and a summary of his key policy positions inside.
• President Biden will head to Las Vegas, Nevada today for a series of events designed to rally support amongst Black and Hispanic voters and counter-programme the Republican National Convention. Today, he will announce a new plan to cap rental costs nationwide.
• Trump's legal victory in Florida caps a remarkable stretch for Trump that began at the first presidential debate on June 27.
• Poll of the Day: Vice President Kamala Harris outperforms Biden in PA and VA.

Please find the full article attached below:

MNIPOLRISKUSDaily160724.pdf