MNI: Populist Wins To Halt Italy EU Reform Push - Analysts

--Lega Party Looks to Visegrad Bloc, Greater Sovereignty

--5 Star Ambiguous, No Will To Reform Europe

--Conservative Forces Now Seen 'Legitimised' Through Vote

By Silvia Marchetti

     ROME (MNI) - Italy's push to both reform Europe-wide governance and further

the integration process will be weakened following the electoral success of the

'populist' parties, leading political analysts told MNI.

     "The 5-Star Movement and Lega victories have transformed the nature of

populism. Now these parties cannot be defined as 'populist' anymore but are

established, post-ideological forces with which all other Italian parties and

institutions must deal with. The vote has legitimised populism into mainstream

politics," said Giovanni Orsina, director at Rome-based LUISS University's

School of Government. 

     This, in his view, is a very negative 'metamorphosis', as it will result in

a shift in Italy's relationship with the European Union. The incoming government

is set to become less "progressive, reforming and inclusive" but more focused on

"antagonism and opposition to set rules," he noted. 

     The greatest risk now is that any good so far achieved by Rome in terms of

greater flexibility and credibility on the European stage will be undone.

     "Neither party (5-Star or Lega) have proposed a clear, constructive reform

of the union, despite the ongoing debate in Brussels over the future governance.

Their position is rather to demolish certain achievements, starting from the

euro through to set fiscal regulations," said Orsina. 

     --EU POWER SHIFT

     If a new, populist-led government does rise to power, with either the

5-Star or Lega as main stakeholders, the EU balance of power would also shift. 

     The outgoing Democrat government has always looked to strengthen its

position within the Paris-Berlin pro-reform axis, paving the way to forming a

'Big 3 Club', but Lega and 5-Star look elsewhere in the bloc for allies.

     "Italy has always been squeezed between all-mighty Germany and France. This

country has never been really credible nor strong enough on the EU stage to set

or change existing rules. We need to tilt the power axis," Lega parliamentary

deputy Gianluca Pini told MNI. 

     Lega, along with its smaller centre-right ally Fratelli d'Italia, support

the Visegrad bloc of Eastern European states, aiming to side with countries like

Poland, Hungary and even Austria that want 'in' the EU club for economic

benefits but to be 'out' when it comes to respecting EU commitments, said Sergio

Fabbrini, recurrent professor of comparative politics at Berkeley University.

     "These conservative forces preach greater sovereignty and national

empowerment to the detriment of Europe's interdependence among member states,

which is the pillar of the federalist project of the EU's founding fathers,"

agued Fabbrini. 

     --MIXED MESSAGES

     The 5-Star Movement have sent out mixed messages on Europe. Their manifesto

doesn't even include a chapter on EU reform, but stresses the need to recover

"independence, sovereignty and self-determination". 

     Despite having dropped -- for now at least -- calls to exit the euro, 5SM

supports breaching the deficit and debt rules and dismantling all EU treaties.

It doesn't even envisage a need to reform Europe. 

     Lega leader Matteo Salvini has said his role models are Hungary prime

minister Viktor Orban and U.S. President Donald Trump. Salvini says he favours

the re-introduction of import duties to protect Italian products. 

     Fratelli president Giorgia Meloni toured Hungary and Bulgaria prior to the

election to strengthen ties, hailing their defence of national borders during

the immigration crisis. 

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

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