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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
October nonfarm payrolls are expected to have risen by 450k, vs 194k in September, per both the MNI Dealer Median and Bloomberg survey median.
- The MNI dealer median range is 350k to 675k; the BBG has a 250k-700k range, with avg 451k.
- Note a small standard deviation by recent standards (apart from Feb 2021, the lowest since pre-pandemic), which sets a lower bar for a "miss" in either direction and thus market reaction.
- The Bloomberg "whisper" number is 500k, up from 450k Thursday morning.
- The unemployment rate is seen dipping to 4.7%, (4.8% prior), with average hourly earnings +0.4% M/M (vs +0.6% prior).
- Once again, sell-side analysts see labor supply as a bigger constraint to job growth than demand, and that's the main reasoning cited for below-consensus projections.
- The more bullish estimates cite recent Census Bureau household surveys indicating that reasons for not working due to Covid have subsided, as well as a better performance in the "education" column vs September; some eye improvement in unemployment insurance claims.
Source: BBG
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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