February 29, 2024 09:35 GMT
MNI Projects Core CPI Stickiness From State Level Data
GERMAN DATA
We have now received state data that equates to 89.1% weighting of the national February flash German CPI print (due at 13:00 BST / 14:00 CET). MNI estimates that national CPI (non-HICP print) rose by +0.5% m/m and 2.6% y/y - in line with consensus expectations.
- However, current tracking of core CPI (ex-energy and food, based on 50% of the national index) implies 3.5% Y/Y (vs 3.4% in January) and 0.6-0.7% M/M, per our calculations - which look more elevated than expected coming into the session.
- For perspective, Morgan Stanley - which had one of the highest analyst forecasts for February Euro core HICP and was one of the few to break out German core CPI expectations - had expected 3.1% Y/Y / 0.3% M/M core, which they said represented "strong momentum".
- We will provide a follow-up bullet looking at the drivers of the stickiness in due course.
- This is based on the published index values for available state data. The data implies readings slightly below consensus on an annual basis
- Note: These estimates are in relation to the national CPI print, not the HICP print which feeds into the Eurozone HICP print that the ECB targets. The magnitude of surprises to consensus can sometimes be different due to the different methodologies and weights used in national CPI vs HICP - but the direction of the surprise is normally the same.
| Y/Y | February (Reported) | January (Reported) | Difference |
| North Rhine Westphalia | 2.6 | 3.0 | -0.4 |
| Hesse | 2.1 | 2.2 | -0.1 |
| Bavaria | 2.6 | 2.9 | -0.3 |
| Brandenburg | 3.5 | 3.7 | -0.2 |
| Baden Wuert. | 2.7 | 3.2 | -0.5 |
| Berlin | 2.0 | 2.3 | -0.3 |
| Saxony | 3.0 | 3.5 | -0.5 |
| Rhineland-Palatinate | 2.7 | 2.7 | 0.0 |
| Lower Saxony | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0.0 |
| Saarland | 2.8 | 2.9 | -0.1 |
| Saxony-Anhalt | 2.2 | 2.7 | -0.5 |
| Weighted average: | 2.57% | for | 89.1% |
| M/M | February (Reported) | January (Reported) | Difference |
| North Rhine Westphalia | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Hesse | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 |
| Bavaria | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Brandenburg | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| Baden Wuert. | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Berlin | 0.6 | -0.2 | 0.8 |
| Saxony | 0.3 | 0.4 | -0.1 |
| Rhineland-Palatinate | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Lower Saxony | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| Saarland | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| Saxony-Anhalt | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Weighted average: | 0.48% | for | 89.1% |
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