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MNI Projects CPI Cooling to +6.12% in Downside Surprise
We have now received state data that equates to 88.0% weighting of the national German CPI print (due at 1300 BST / 1400 CET).
- MNI calculations estimate that CPI fell by -0.07% m/m, and eased to +6.12% y/y in May. This is based on the published index values for available state data. This implies a substantial 1.1pp deceleration on the annualised figure from +7.2% y/y in April, as German headline inflation distances itself further from the October/November peak of +8.8% y/y.
- For m/m and y/y, our estimate is around 0.3pp and 0.4pp below the current Bloomberg consensus forecast.
- Today's state data also points towards a decent reduction in core CPI for Germany, after holding close to the euro-era high at +5.8% y/y in April. Core CPI data excluding both energy and food is only available for six states which account for 50% of the headline index. These all saw core CPI easing by 0.2pp to 0.7pp on the headline annualised prints, with a weighted average reduction of -0.47pp.
- Note: this is in relation to the national CPI print - not the HICP print (which feeds into the Eurozone HICP print that the ECB targets). The magnitude of surprises to consensus can sometimes be different due to the different methodologies and weights used in national CPI vs HICP - but the direction of the surprise is normally the same.
| M/M | May (reported) | Apr (reported) | Difference | Weighting |
| North Rhine Westphalia | -0.2% | 0.4% | -0.6% | 21.1% |
| Hesse | 0.0% | 0.3% | -0.3% | 7.7% |
| Bavaria | -0.1% | 0.4% | -0.5% | 16.9% |
| Brandenburg | 0.1% | 0.4% | -0.3% | 2.9% |
| Baden Wuert. | 0.1% | 0.5% | -0.4% | 14.1% |
| Berlin | -0.3% | 0.7% | -1.0% | 4.0% |
| Saxony | -0.3% | 0.3% | -0.6% | 4.6% |
| Rhineland-Palatinate | 0.0% | 0.4% | -0.4% | 4.9% |
| Lower Saxony | -0.1% | 0.4% | -0.5% | 9.4% |
| Saxony-Anhalt | 0.2% | 0.3% | -0.1% | 2.4% |
| Weighted average: | -0.07% | for | 88.0% |
| Y/Y | May (reported) | Apr (reported) | Difference | Weighting |
| North Rhine Westphalia | 5.7% | 6.7% | -1.0% | 21.1% |
| Hesse | 5.9% | 6.9% | -1.0% | 7.7% |
| Bavaria | 6.1% | 7.2% | -1.1% | 16.9% |
| Brandenburg | 6.3% | 7.6% | -1.3% | 2.9% |
| Baden Wuert. | 6.6% | 7.3% | -0.7% | 14.1% |
| Berlin | 6.0% | 7.5% | -1.5% | 4.0% |
| Saxony | 6.5% | 7.6% | -0.2% | 4.6% |
| Rhineland-Palatinate | 6.1% | 7.1% | -1.0% | 4.9% |
| Lower Saxony | 6.4% | 7.5% | -1.1% | 9.4% |
| Saxony-Anhalt | 6.4% | 7.3% | -0.9% | 2.4% |
| Weighted average: | 6.12% | for | 88.0% |
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