MNI RBA Preview - June 2021: Filling A Space Ahead Of The Key July Meeting

• Q1 GDP partials point to a fairly resilient domestic economy, although the internationally influenced readings have been a little more questionable. Meanwhile, the COVID lockdown in Victoria throws a fresh hurdle in the path of the economy, although most assume that policymakers will be able to minimise the impact of the restrictions that are in play, given the country's impressive track record in isolating cases, limiting the wider spread of any outbreaks. This shouldn't elicit much in the way of a response from the RBA, outside of a note of the issue and perhaps a hat tip to the obvious risks surrounding any notable prolonging of the state-wide lockdown.
• Looking ahead, it is clear that the majority of the sell-side community do not expect the RBA to extend the coverage of its yield targeting scheme to ACGB Nov '24 come the end of the July meeting, with expectations re: estimates of the next round of bond purchases generally between the A$50bn to A$100bn goalposts over a ~6-month horizon.
• We should not expect the RBA to shed any new information on those matters at the end of its June meeting, although Governor Lowe may choose to use a 17 June and/or 30 June address to finesse the messaging ahead of next month's decision.

Please use the following link to access the full preview:

RBA Preview - June 2021.pdf