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MNI RBA Preview - March 2022: No Change In Overarching View

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The March meeting shouldn’t see any notable adjustments to the RBA’s tone, while no changes in monetary policy settings are foreseen. The Bank will tip its hat to the economic risks posed by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but this shouldn’t be seen as a gamechanger for monetary policy at this stage, with so much unceratainty embedded into that situation.
  • Q4 Y/Y wage growth printed virtually in line with the Bank’s central assumption, providing a very modest disappointment when compared to broader consensus. Ultimately, Q4 WPI wasn’t seen as a figure to advance the case for a June rate hike (by most), with the bulk of the sell-side still looking for an initial rate hike in August, when the Bank will have received the “couple more” CPI readings that Governor Lowe pointed to recently.
  • The market remains marginally more aggressive than the sell-side, with the IB strip pricing a rate hike come the end of the Bank’s July meeting.
  • Click to view full preview: MNI RBA Preview - March 2022.pdf
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
Central Bank PreviewRBA - PreviewCentral Bank ReportsMarkets
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
Central Bank PreviewRBA - PreviewCentral Bank ReportsMarkets

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