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MNI RBI Preview - June 2023: On Hold, Policy Stance In Focus

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The broad consensus is for the RBI to remain on hold at tomorrow's policy meeting, leaving the policy rate at 6.5%. This is also our bias. Recent inflation prints have undershot to the downside and it's likely the y/y pace will lose further altitude in the next few months.
  • An on-hold outcome will leave the focus on the RBI's policy stance. It may be too early to shift to a neutral stance (from 'withdrawal of accommodation'). Inflation is still above the mid-point of the RBI target band, while the central bank may also wish to see how the monsoon season unfolds before shifting to neutral.
  • The growth backdrop is also painting a resilient picture, so there appears to be less need, at least in the near term, for the RBI to be turning more dovish to support the growth outlook.
  • Full preview here:

    • RBI Preview - June 2023.pdf


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