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MNI RBNZ Preview - August 2021: Economy Runs Hot But Covid Spectre Looms

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The two key pieces of data released since the previous meeting, quarterly inflation and labour market reports, proved considerably better than anticipated. Higher-frequency indicators have consistently pointed to mouting inflationary pressures and persistent labour shortages.
  • Recent commentary from RBNZ Governor Orr suggested that the MPC might look at interest rates at the upcoming meeting, while the Reserve Bank expressed a sense of discomfort with unsustainable housing prices.
  • RBNZ hike bets have been building on the back of stellar data releases, before moderating just a day before the decision announcement, as New Zealand identified a new Covid-19 case in the community, at a time when the Delta variant is ravaging Asia.
  • The situation remains fluid as we await further updates from New Zealand health officials, but we still consider a 25bp hike to the OCR to be the most likely scenario. The case for tightening policy has been building for a long time, when the MPC chose to look through strong data signals.

Click to view the full preview: MNI RBNZ Preview August 2021.pdf

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