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MNI RBNZ Preview - May 2023: Tightening Still Needed, Pace Can Slow

RBNZ
  • Increased fiscal stimulus, soaring immigration and inflationary impact of rebuilding make the outcome of the May 24 RBNZ meeting a close call between a 25bp and 50bp hike. We think that the RBNZ can afford to step down to +25bp as inflation and inflation expectations are moving in the right direction and policy is now restrictive. But with inflation elevated and demand robust, the RBNZ is still likely to tighten further and keep its tightening bias.
  • With at least some tightening expected, the focus is going to be on the guidance and the updated forecasts.
  • Recent developments add to capacity and price pressures, so more monetary tightening is likely to be needed.
  • See preview here.
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