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MNI UK Issuance Deep Dive: Budget 2023 Preview: Update

With no rabbits from the hat expected, the focus for investors may be more on the gilt remit. We look at expectations for the maturity split and outline which new gilts we expect to see issued in the upcoming fiscal year.

Global Issuance - UKHomepagePolitical RiskGlobal IssuanceGlobal Issuance - OverviewMarkets

MNI View: No Rabbits from the Hat; Focus on Gilt Issuance

Note that this corrects Morgan Stanley's financing requirement number for 2023/24.

  • There is little expectation that Hunt will deliver ‘rabbits from the hat' in the form of notable tax cuts or public sector spending hikes. The focus for investors may therefore be more on the gilt remit and the economic projections from the OBR as well as the underlying assumptions used.
  • We discuss what this means for the remit, the maturity split and outline which new gilts we expect to see issued in the upcoming fiscal year.
  • We also discuss the political implications.
  • Finally, we summarise key analyst views.
For the full document see:

UK_Budget_Preview_Mar23_Update.pdf

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MNI View: No Rabbits from the Hat; Focus on Gilt Issuance

Note that this corrects Morgan Stanley's financing requirement number for 2023/24.

  • There is little expectation that Hunt will deliver ‘rabbits from the hat' in the form of notable tax cuts or public sector spending hikes. The focus for investors may therefore be more on the gilt remit and the economic projections from the OBR as well as the underlying assumptions used.
  • We discuss what this means for the remit, the maturity split and outline which new gilts we expect to see issued in the upcoming fiscal year.
  • We also discuss the political implications.
  • Finally, we summarise key analyst views.
For the full document see:

UK_Budget_Preview_Mar23_Update.pdf