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MNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: Sep 2022

The 20Y Treasury Note's underperformance following the Q3 refunding release - and its poor August auction - stand out.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • While August's refunding announcement was more or less in line with expectations, the underperformance of the 20Y Note on the curve immediately following the release (poor August’s auction) stood out.
  • August’s auction results were mixed-to-weak, as suggested by MNI’s Auction Relative Strength Indicator.
  • Of August’s 7 coupon auctions, 3 stopped through, with 4 tailing. By comparison in July, 6 of 7 had traded through (with the 7th tailing).
  • Nominal coupon supply restarts next week with $41B of 3Y Note, $32B of 10Y Note (re-open), and $18B of 30Y Bond (re-open) auctions.

Please see PDF for full analysis:

MNI_US_DeepDive_Issuance_Sept2022.pdf



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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • While August's refunding announcement was more or less in line with expectations, the underperformance of the 20Y Note on the curve immediately following the release (poor August’s auction) stood out.
  • August’s auction results were mixed-to-weak, as suggested by MNI’s Auction Relative Strength Indicator.
  • Of August’s 7 coupon auctions, 3 stopped through, with 4 tailing. By comparison in July, 6 of 7 had traded through (with the 7th tailing).
  • Nominal coupon supply restarts next week with $41B of 3Y Note, $32B of 10Y Note (re-open), and $18B of 30Y Bond (re-open) auctions.

Please see PDF for full analysis:

MNI_US_DeepDive_Issuance_Sept2022.pdf