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MNI Riksbank Preview - June 2023: 25bp hike expected but upside risks

RIKSBANK
  • The big question ahead of this week’s Riksbank meeting is whether there will be another hawkish central bank surprise. Every analyst preview that we have read and every respondent to the SEB investor survey expects a 25bp hike this week to 3.75%.
  • We think there is a greater chance of a hawkish surprise than most analysts would suggest despite there having been two dissenters to the 50bp hike at the last meeting in April.
  • A step up in the pace of QT is also expected. Most analysts expect an increase in pace from SEK3.5bln/month to somewhere between SEK5-6bln/month, while the median expectation in the SEB investor survey was for a SEK5.75bln/month pace.
  • In terms of the rate profile, the median of the analyst previews we have read look for a peak around 3.85-3.90%. However, an increasing number of analysts look for a further 25bp hike in September, in order to keep up to some extent with the ECB and to support the krona.
See the full document for summaries of more than 15 sellside previews here.
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