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MNI SARB Preview - Mar 2025: Considering Pause

Most analysts expect the SARB to pause its rate-cutting cycle amid uncertainty around budget and global trade tensions.
South African Reserve - PreviewHomepageAnalysisEM Central Bank ReportsEM Central Bank PreviewCEMEA Bank- PreviewStory

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Executive Summary:

  • Split consensus is leaning towards a pause at this meeting.
  • Domestic developments could justify another 25bp cut.
  • Elevated uncertainty may prompt the SARB to stand pat.

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) may take a pause after a sequence of three consecutive 25bp interest-rate cuts as uncertainty around domestic fiscal policy and global trade tensions cloud the outlook. Although domestic conditions arguably leave room for another step in the monetary easing cycle, the SARB’s hawkish approach will likely prompt policymakers to err on the side of caution. Hawkish dissenting votes at the previous monetary policy meeting and Governor Kganyago’s comments on the possible fallout from global trade tensions suggested that the central bank may seek to consolidate progress in its fight against inflation – although it is a tough call and another cut cannot be ruled out.

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Download Full Report Here

Executive Summary:

  • Split consensus is leaning towards a pause at this meeting.
  • Domestic developments could justify another 25bp cut.
  • Elevated uncertainty may prompt the SARB to stand pat.

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) may take a pause after a sequence of three consecutive 25bp interest-rate cuts as uncertainty around domestic fiscal policy and global trade tensions cloud the outlook. Although domestic conditions arguably leave room for another step in the monetary easing cycle, the SARB’s hawkish approach will likely prompt policymakers to err on the side of caution. Hawkish dissenting votes at the previous monetary policy meeting and Governor Kganyago’s comments on the possible fallout from global trade tensions suggested that the central bank may seek to consolidate progress in its fight against inflation – although it is a tough call and another cut cannot be ruled out.