Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary:
- The SNB are expected to raise rates further this quarter
- Tailwind of overseas rates and still lofty CPI seen pushing the benchmark positive for first time in a decade
- Most forecasts acknowledge the real risk of tightening anywhere between 50 and 100bps this month.
Consensus looks for a 75bps rate rise this quarter, an acceleration of the 50bps rate rise that kicked off the tightening cycle in June, but there is little certainty among analysts. Most forecasts acknowledge the real risk of tightening anywhere between 50 and 100bps this month.
This quarter, CPI outturns again exceeded the SNB’s forecast (although the margin of error over the past three months has been considerably smaller than that seen in previous policy rounds) and will be keeping pressure on the board to act against burgeoning inflation expectations at home. This should lead to the now familiar view among the board that inflation will be hotter-than-expected in the near-term, before drifting lower and back to target across 2023. This will likely again be signalled by minor revisions among the bank’s inflation and growth forecasting.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.