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MNI SNB Preview: September 2023: 25bps Hike Could Be The Last

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • A 25bps rate hike to 2.00% could be the last in the cycle
  • Short-term price pressures are clearly alleviating, however medium-term inflation still an issue.
  • The Bank is unlikely to drop the message that more tightening may be required ahead
Our full preview including a summary of sell-side views can be found here:

MNI SNB Preview Sep 23.pdf

A 25bps rate hike to 2.00% could mark the final tightening step of the cycle for the Swiss National Bank, with markets well priced for this to mark the top of the cycle. While the bank downgraded their forecast for near-term inflation in June, medium- and longer-term inflation expectations remain elevated above the bank’s target. This left the board likely to raise rates further in September, and retain a preference for a strong currency.

Figure: CHF OIS shows markets believe SNB near top of the cycle

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