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MNI SNB Review - December 2020: On Hold For the Foreseeable

Full review here:

MNISNBRevDec20.pdf

In keeping policy unchanged, the SNB continue to signal to markets that they will look through deeply deflationary conditions and that the bar to further rate cuts is high – despite the Committee stressing that it remains an option. Instead, it seems the SNB will continue to rely on FX intervention to defend against financial market fragmentation and the continued use of the negative rate exemption thresholds to shield the domestic banking sector against the pitfalls of negative interest rate policy.

The SNB made only minor revisions to their inflation forecasts, seeing a deeper decline in CPI, followed by higher snapback in the second quarter of next year. Nonetheless, their expectation for when Switzerland will return to positive inflation was left unchanged.

Figure 1: SNB retain expectation that CPI will turn positive in Q2 2021

Source: Swiss National Bank / MNI

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